US and Chinese strength may not be replicated elsewhere

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 450 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks.

Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We’ve raised our 2026 global GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.7%, slightly below this year’s estimated 2.8% gain.  
• The move reflects a more positive, above-consensus view on prospects for China. 
• However, we remain relatively bearish on our outlooks for other major economies, partly because stronger Chinese export growth may weigh on exporters elsewhere.

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