US midterm results and tech sell-off add uncertainty to growth prospects for 2027

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 450 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks.

Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• The US midterm elections and the recent sell-off of tech stocks have added to uncertainty regarding the likely path for the global economy.
• But for now, we’ve not made substantial changes to our forecasts and only envisage a modest pick-up in GDP growth next year after a sluggish 2026.
• True, our world GDP growth forecast for 2027 is now 3.0% compared to 2.8% a month ago; however, the increase to our projection for 2027 GDP growth is partly due to upward revisions to historical GDP estimates for the Eurozone and to a lesser extent China in Q3. 

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